Arming Ukraine: A Global Blowback of Catastrophic Proportions

Given NATO’s justified reluctance in actually doing something concrete to help Ukraine, as in trying to impose a no-fly zone, which would mean directly going against high tech Russian air defense systems and an actual air force, both things that, as my previous article clearly states, are not in NATO’s standard modus operandi, as they tend on attacking countries, which do not possess either modern air defenses nor an air force or at least a viable air force and not museum pieces.

So what is NATO doing? Flooding Ukraine with so called lethal aid, however this is not just limited to hundreds of thousands of personal weapons, as in rifles (AR-15s, AK-47 et simila), alongside tens of million of rounds of ammunition, be they 5.56 mm or 7,62X39, but also anti-tank weapons, anti-aircraft systems, which can down a modern helicopter or even a fifth generation fighter jet.

Now after the inevitable Russian victory, where are those billions of dollars of military aid going to end up at?

Well, obviously everything modern will end up in Russia and China, where it will be reverse engineered and cheaper copies mass produced, then sold to anyone who has the hard cash or the resources to pay for them, be it oil, gas or diamonds.

A big chunk will be given to proxies, especially since Russia would use them in an asymmetrical revenge on NATO, so do not be surprised if they end up in Mali, Chad, Burkina Faso or any other country where Russia has influence, an indirect Military Inc. presence, with a P.M.C like Wagner Group.

Do not be surprised if the next time a NATO platoon is engaged in a contact in Chad, the enemy they will face will be better trained and especially much much better equipped than it was before.

Obviously anti-aircraft weapons have a friend-or-foe system installed, which means that an anti-aircraft weapon platform produced in a NATO country cannot be used to engage a NATO plane, however, a reverse engineered, mass produced Russian or Chinese copy, certainly would be able to target a NATO aircraft with no issues.

These weapons will find their way to Iran, which in turn will supply them to Hezbullah, creating a further headache for a staunch NATO regional ally, they will end up in Yemen, creating issues for the other friend of the West in the Middle East, so do not be surprised if French or US made Saudi jets start falling down or exploding like clay pigeons on a Sunday morning at the clay shooting club.

Ultimately they will end up in every conflict zone in which NATO forces are engaged, places that were mentioned before like Chad.

Obviously every criminal non-state organization is also licking its hands at, first refreshing their own arsenals, second, supplying other criminal entities, those anti-tank missiles might realistically end up in the hands of a Mexican Cartel, destroying armor of the security forces of the Mexican Government, in a place where the local security situation is already “fragile (understatement of the year) as it is.

Every mafia group like the Camorra, the N’Ndrangheta, Mexican Cartels, every terrorist or non-state militia group in the world is looking forward to putting their hands on the latest weapons that Uncle Sam and its allies with no foresight have flooded Ukraine with.

The Blowback will be terrible, just mark my words, this will make the badly executed US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the leaving of billions worth of equipment in the hands of the Taliban look like child’s play.

Security forces around the world will suffer casualties because of this idiotic policy of drowning Ukraine with so many weapons, all of which will be unaccounted for, once the conflict dies down.

Peace

NATO’s Reluctance in Imposing a No-Fly Zone

Here in West many are asking themselves why is NATO only supplying Ukraine with so called “lethal aid” aka weapons, training and finance and not imposing a no-fly zone, well that’s because…

I must point out one important thing, this factor alone is huge.

The US, the UK, NATO in general and one country, which is not in NATO but a staunch US ally in the Middle East, are used to vaporize cities of countries that do not have 10% of their military capabilities.

One thing is bombing Afghanistan, do they have flak? Anti-aircraft guns? Effective modern air-defense missile systems?

Forget about it, they have nothing. Iraq even in 1991 could not defend itself effectively, let alone in 2003 after decades of sanctions and a joke of an army.

Lebanon, Gaza, all places with no air force of their own, or a very outdated one in the case of Iraq, no air defense that can down a NATO plane.

Russia has S-500s, S-400s and a ton of S-300s. If NATO attacks Russia via air, they would suffer losses no Western nation has faced since the Second World War.

It would be like the war in the Pacific against Japan and in Europe against Germany.

I am sorry I know it sounds cold, selfish, as it is cold and selfish, but no NATO country is going to lose a Eurofighter, a Rafale, an F16, an F35 or an F22 and likely the pilot over Ukraine. They would not lose one, but several.

Furthermore it’s not just the craft itself but the telegram to the mother, wife or daughter of the pilot. No chance. You are on your own.

Sure they will give weapons, ammunition, supplies and will spit a lot of bile towards Russia, but as they would say in my old area I used to live in, Bethnal Green, talk is cheap blud.

They will implement some sanctions for as long as the Western public is interested, not very long, we all suffer from ADD and have very short attention spans. 

The big issue in Europe and the US is rising fuel costs and prices, the inflation is so big it is sending people down.

Ukraine is a useful distraction for Western governments but soon it will be fuel costs on the first pages, your war would end up on the third or fourth page, if that, like Yemen or Syria.  

Sorry, this is cynical but it’s just the way it is. 

Once the increasing living costs and fuel prices issue starts being big you will be forgotten, like the people of Ethiopia, Mali, Yemen, Syria or any other conflict zone. 

I apologize if I sound cold, but unfortunately I am being realistic.

Take care of yourselves as the West will not do it for you. Peace.

An Incredible Scenario

Scenario I:

A coup is orchestrated in Mexico, foreign agencies successfully pull off a regime change, remove the legitimate leader of the country and put in his place a puppet.

Before Mexico was on good terms with its northern neighbour, now it has a new leader who vomits bile and hatred towards Washington on a daily basis, not only that but nationalist, extremist militias also start targeting US expats, English speaking communities, border areas and start a policy of ethnic cleansing towards Americans present on Mexican soil, like the many Mormon communities.

Now let’s say that this coup had been orchestrated and executed by a geopolitical rival of the US, which is now not satisfied with having successfully pulled off a regime change, dividing two countries, which were on friendly terms before, but now this third country is also arming, financing and training both the armed forces and the ethnic-nationalist militias, which are committing crimes against humanity against US citizens.

How would they react if said third country placed its own bases, servicemen and missile platforms in Tijuana or just south of the Rio Grande?

Scenario II:

Well, this is exactly what the United States of America did in Ukraine. The “Orange Revolution”, regime change, going from having two countries that share Slavic ethnicity, language, culture getting along to hatred fueled by Washington, arming, financing and training militias like Right Sector, which have conducted acts of mass violence against people who identify as Russians in the East, which is what ultimately made Russia REACT, to save its own people, providing help to local militias that were defending and helping the civilian population, which was in the process of being cowardly but viciously attacked by out-of-control paramilitary groups financed and kitted by the US.

The war is Eastern Ukraine was started by the US, the biggest hypocrites on the planet

Would the US tolerate the first scenario? Like hell they would.

The Monroe Doctrine works for other countries too, whether it is Russia asserting its centuries of influence in its backyard, Ukraine was Russian at the time of the Czars, matter of fact, even before the Romanovs came to power and they ruled for 400 years, so US and British media keeping on saying that Ukraine was under Moscow at the time of the USSR, while forgetting to mention that it had been as such for CENTURIES, is offensive to anyone who has ever opened a history book.

The Monroe Doctrine also applies to China, the South China Sea and their rebel provinces.

Who seems to be completely out of place, as usual? I would guess the country, which is thousand of nautical miles away from either the Baltic Sea or the South China Sea.

Why are there US military bases surrounding Russia? Why are there US servicemen putting missiles at Russia’s border and training Russia’s neighbours? Why are US carrier groups aggressively positioned close to China?

Such a shame Russia founded their country so close to all those NATO bases. Wow Russians why did you build your country so close to all those American missile platforms?

I hope this is what finally breaks NATO.

The US should learn one simple lesson, stay home, stay home, stay home. The Taliban kicked you out, you ran from the roof the embassy in Saigon in 1975. You laugh at France for WWII, but without the Soviet Union (75% of German casualties happened on the Eastern Front) the result would have been different.

Sad to see a country I love very much like Britain being such a lapdog to the US, bloody hell, have some self-respect.

If the US is Paris Hilton, Britain is the chihuaha in the handbag. Utterly pathetic. Have a foreign policy of your own.

I always looked down on hypocrites and people who start dancing when someone starts clapping.

When the hypocrisy level is over 9000!

The Politics of Ignorance: Swine at the Door

FEAR: Feeble. Education (or lack of). Arrogance. Revanchism

Articles about the rise of populism, have been written enough times lately.

So a blog post by me, of all people, is redundant, understatement eh!

The recipe for the current state of Europe and some states of North America, and some areas, mostly rural, even in the most liberal of states is not actually hard. If it were an actual recipe it would be basic level.

-Have a highly uneducated population, with no studies, who do not read books, who only get information from blogs, tv, mainstream newspapers. Maybe these days not even newspapers, they follow Youtube channels.

-These people have an inferiority complex towards those who are educated and well travelled, they call them names, they make it sound as if getting an education is actually a bad thing.

They are so anti-intellectual, that the Flat Earth Movement is actually a thing,  I mean how ignorant, pig-headed, you have to be to ignore thousands of volumes from the world’s best scientists and believe instead a guy making a video from his bedroom and sharing it on Youtube, while his mom is cooking his Hot Pockets in the kitchen next door.

The mistrust they have in anything official, Flat Earthers do not believe in gravity, no jokes, is so deep, how can they be allowed to vote on policies, on the economy, on development issues. An exam to get an electoral card is a must: basic economics, basic knowledge, basic knowledge of world events, a bit of history.  You don’t pass it, you don’t vote.

-These people have been left behind by the current neo-liberal economic policies, obviously they need to blame somebody so who do they blame? Foreigners, many of whom, arrive in the country without speaking the language, with no family there, with no money or contacts and within a few years prosper. This causes resentment.

-Have “politicians” exploit this frustrations, tell them they can’t get jobs, not because they are Whiskey Tango, they can’t even speak properly their own language, they drink a six pack a day, they have no qualifications and are self-destructing with oxy/hydros or fentanyl laced stuff, they take to fill that big hole they have in their soul.

No the politicians say, it’s Pablo’s fault or Vassili’s (whether it’s in the US or Europe).

Truth is, the Trumps, the Salvinis, have opened up the sewers and the lifeforms who vote for them are now out in the open, filth, trash, uneducated scum, the lowest form of life in the whole universe.

Take some fear of the other, mix it with high school dropouts, add some daily drinking and use of “escapist stuff” and I do mean the hard stuff, as I’m against prohibitionism, and plants and fungi of all types should be legal as they are medicine, we are talking about people eating Xanax bars by the handful, while chugging down a couple of Prozacs, some cheap wine, some oxycontin and are drowning their pathetic existence (literally in their own vomit, 72,000 dead last year in the US).

Hopefully cannabis will be legal all over North America and Europe, so people will have a legal safe natural medicine and won’t have to stuff themselves with all these SSRI, benzos and opioids.

They are happy when they see migrants dead in the desert, or drowned in the sea.

That’s how low they are and in the past they were silent or at least embarrassed but now thanks to social media, they have a voice, and on that, Facebook and other platforms are to blame, by providing a mean to spread hatred, intolerance and views that remind one of the rhetoric of 1930s.

Take away their hate spreading platform, send them back in the sewers.

That’s where they belong.

Revanchism, in reality they know they are going extinct, 25 years and America will be majority Hispanic, here in Europe, same thing but with more diversity, with Eastern Europe, Balkans, North and Sub-Saharian Africa, . They know they are going the way of the dinosaurs, this makes them angry. US and the EU will be multi-ethnic societies and they know it, they cannot reverse it. Trump might well be one of the last white Republican POTUS, as if they are to survive as a party given the demographic changes, they will have to propose a Hispanic or African-American candidate, maybe even more right wing than Trump himself, but the era of the white billionaire president is going.

There won’t be enough angry white males to vote such a candidate anymore.

Still in the next 25 years there will still be enough of them to pose a threat. Silenced they must or fought.

PS: Whiskey Tango is a USMC (US Marine Corps) slang term for White Trash.

Finanza: Il Mercato: lo si può davvero fregare?

Nel 2005, Michael Burry, hedge fund manager di Scion Capital, ormai diventato celebre grazie al film The Big Short, scoprì che il mercato immobiliare, ovvero quello che gli specialisti del settore hanno da sempre considerato come il più sicuro e stabile, era in realtà estremamente instabile e vulnerabile, dato che si fondava su mutui ad alto rischio o subprime mortgages. Burry anticipò il crollo del mercato per il secondo quadrimestre del 2007, analizzando l’inevitabile incremento dei tassi d’interesse sui mutui.

Burry fece una scommessa da un miliardo di dollari, nonostante questa mossa portò ad un incremento dei premium mensili dei suoi clienti, causando il panico tra i suoi clienti e per fermarli dal ritirare i loro investimenti, Burry blocco le erogazioni, attirando su di sé la furia degli investitori. 

Burry però non cedette alla pressione né dei suoi capi, né dei suoi clienti e quando il mercato finalmente crollò, il valore del suo fondo aumentò del 489%, con un profitto totale di 2.69 miliardi di dollari. 

Nei giorni seguenti il crollo, Burry venne sommerso da email di scuse e ringraziamento da parte dei suoi clienti, che lo avevano considerato un pazzo. Per questo bisogna essere audaci, anche quando il 99% delle persone ci remano contro, perché chissà magari sarai proprio tu ad avere ragione. 

Ovviamente questo non è un post che vuole incitare ad azioni ad alto rischio, ma vuole dimostrare come la capacità di analisi, la lungimiranza e il coraggio di andare contro le opinioni altrui, possono portare a risultati incredibili. 

Luca Simonetti, Giugno 2019

The Battle for Hearts and Minds in Aleppo

As any occupational foreign force in history can tell defeating a conventional enemy and taking over the land is only the beginning of the real battle to come, managing not to turn the local civilian inhabitants into mortal enemies.

George Bush the younger famously descended on an aircraft carrier that had a neon light that reminds one of a strip club sign that said “Mission Accomplished”, in reality America’s entanglement in Iraq was only just starting. True, the regular armed forces and Republican Guard had been beaten mercilessly into submission and the country conquered, however it was only after the end of the invasion that US casualties started to skyrocket.

American troops are obviously not strong on cultural sensitivity and it is not hard to imagine how dawn raids on homes, sniffing dogs in mosques and general harassment and abuse could lead to organized armed resistance and hostility from the civilian hosts.

The stark cultural difference obviously plays the biggest part, in that the Russian Government has to be praised in its efforts to pacify and maintain the gains obtained on the ground in Aleppo.

It has been reported in fact that hundreds of Kadyrovtsy, or Chechen troops loyal to Ramzan Kadyrov, have been spotted conducting patrols, humanitarian relief and security operations in the newly liberated city. Those troops have their origin in the two wars that plagued the Caucasus region back in the late nineties, now allied to the Government in Moscow, they have been sent to help pacify the city.

This can be seen as an outreach gesture to the Sunni Muslim population of the city, it was here in 1982 that a Sunni rebellion was suffocated by Assad the elder, the father of the current Syrian leader.

Having overwhelmingly Sunni troops patrol and interact with the locals helps create a link of trust between the people and the foreign boots on the ground, thus reducing the resentment that would have inevitably built up had the city streets been secured by over zealous Syrian militiamen, Shia Hezbullah soldiers or ethnic Russian troops.

The jury on the long term outcome of this strategy is obviously still out, but so far it seems to be paying off with the foreign troops being received cordially by the what is left of the local inhabitants, slowly but surely as the security situation improves local personnel will take over the duties, but as long as a foreign presence is needed, this way of going about it seems likely to reduce resistance and hostility.

 

 

The Backlash Has Yet to Commence

Many people around the world, especially those who hold a human conscience and the concept of right and wrong have been left absolutely gobsmacked by what came out of the White House the past few days. It beggars belief that a nation that for so many decades has tried to paint itself as the defender of the “free world”, whatever that meant, the promoter of “freedom” and as such, has aggressively been pushing what they claimed was an agenda to free the world of tyranny, intolerance and hatred.

Well…

What can we possibly say, in just 72 hours Mr. Trump has literally flushed down the loo decades of efforts by US leaders to be seen as the protectors and promoters of freedom.

Now it might be that it was us, the global citizenry that deeply misunderstood what they meant by freedom, it now seems increasingly clearer that the freedom they envision, only applied to people of a certain fair complexion, as long as you look “right”, do not have a “dangerous” sounding name, then your freedoms are guaranteed, but if you happen to be born in a country that is guilty of having no Trump Golf Courses, then you might be in trouble.

The reports coming from human rights associations and various attorneys paint a very sad and worrying situation, Green Card holders who have spent huge amounts of money, have already been vetted ( hence why they have a Green Card in the first place) being refused entry to a country that are legally entitled to enter, people who’s only guilt is being born in a wrong Muslim majority country being denied joining their families in the US or simply unable to return to their jobs after being back into their ancestral homelands for short term holidays or family visit.

The author of this piece feels that analogies to a well known regime of the past, one that was heavy on discrimination but had an eye for stylish uniforms has already been done too much, furthermore decreasing the credibility of those pointing out the similarities, however it is impossible not to see parallels.

It is not just the stark hypocrisy at play here that insults the spirit, for instance a country that is known for being the biggest financers of radical groups, the main exporter of extremist Wahabi ideology, whose citizens were the majority of perpetrators of the 9/11 attacks, a country that has been funding and arming cutthroats and other radical imbeciles in the Syrian conflict, somehow managed to get excluded from the travel ban list.

We all know they have oil, hold huge amounts of US debt and have been the biggest customer of American, British and French weapons fro decades, yet, the hypocrisy is truly offensive if not outright nauseating.

Some of the countries added on the list have never been a threat to the US, none of their citizens ever committed any atrocity towards the US, yet they have been collectively punished for crimes committed by others.

It does not seem to be a coincidence that the oil rich Gulf monarchies have been excluded from this ban, after all Trump does have some apparently world class Golf courses in those places and is probably looking at expanding his business interests there (conflict of interest anyone?)

I struggle to look back at any time in recent history to see a parallel to the current situation, no US President in the modern era has managed to do so much damage to US reputation around the world in so little time, possibly seriously undermining its standing in the global order.

It must not be forgotten that one of the side effects of having pursued such an aggressive foreign policy for so many reason, is that the US is definately not short of one thing, rivals and potential enemies and they certainly are looking at the current predicament the US put itself into and are planning their moves.

The US itself seems divided beyond saving, mass showings of public disaffection and rage had not be witnessed on US soil since the golden era of the protest movement back in the late sixties, during the misguided and ill thought war in Vietnam.

Trump seems to have been able to galvanize a variety of antagonist forces, it is likely that the protests, that so far have been largely peaceful might actually escalate into something bigger, the more the people who are simply taking part in a peaceful demonstration get pepper sprayed and taste the repressive arm of the state, the more the protests could turn radical, perhaps even escalating into open rebellion.

Furthermore one shall never confuse genuine refugees with economic migrants, it is true that many of the latter claim to be fleeing war zones while in reality they left their homes out of choice to find better employment prospects, those that claim asylum or refugee status but do not deserve to do so, should be punished through the full extent of the law, deported and barred from re-entering the country.

However genuine refugees who had no choice but to leave their conflict ridden countries, should not be denied entry and support, it is a matter of basic human dignity and solidarity, in preventing honest asylum seekers and refugees to enter the US, Trump has made a great disservice to the very values that help build America and made it what it is today.

It is sickening or ironic, depending on the point of view the fact that Trump enacted his move to bar refugees from a war zone to enter the US on the same day the world remembers the victims of the Holocaust. It seems the old proverb, “if you do not learn from history you are bound to repeat it”, is as true as when it was first coined.

The backlash from this course of action undertaken by the US President is yet to manifest itself in its full scale, yes some countries like Iraq have reciprocated banning entry to US passport holders, however the full consequences are hard to predict, it looks likely that Trump is building not just a wall on the southern border with Mexico, but around himself, adopting a scorched earth policy that is unlikely to benefit or help American interests around the globe.

What Now for the Middle East?

The last few weeks of the Obama Presidency saw the starkest change of course of US policy towards the state of Israel, the latter has come to expect full unconditional support, not only monetary and military but diplomatic. The current Israel leadership pretends that the US should ignore global concerns about land appropriation and the expansion of settlements, that it should also ignore its own moral dilemmas and should block, veto and sabotage whatever initiative might be planned at the UN.

The US has staunchly supported Israel, even to detriment of its own interests in the region, the full backing has been taken for granted by the Israeli Government, it came as a surprise then when the US Ambassador to the UN abstained from voting the Security Council Resolution demanding an end to Israeli settlement expansion in the West Bank, the fact that US chose not use its veto privileges was seen as insult and a betrayal by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

The spat between him and Obama is quite unprecedented, previous US Presidents would have given the order to veto the motion at the UN, in this case however, the US resisted pressure from its Middle Eastern ally and acted according to its own interests for once.

Netanyahu took to Twitter to express his bewilderment at the US inaction and to reach out to the President elect through his favorite social media platform, he pleaded to Donald Trump to rethink the US position once he’s installed in the White House and possibly introduce a UN motion that would negate the Resolution just passed, by introducing a new Resolution that would revoke the previous.

However it is highly unlikely that the Trump Administration could gain the support of eight other members of the Security Council to promote such a measure, it is also likely that a permanent member might veto it if the US were ever to propose such initiative.

Before the vote Trump did come out suggesting that the US shall veto it, this quite a deviation from standard protocol as it not usual for a President elect to publicly go against a foreign policy decision of the current government, meddling in the decision making process before he has even taken office.

During Obama’s tenure he has frequently had some major public disagreements with the Israeli President, the decision to suppor the Resolution by refraining from using the veto could be seen as a parting shot to his Israeli counterpart. The two had clashed before over settlement expansion and on the terms of the Iran nuclear deal, in a way making the decision to allow the Resolution to pass might have been Obama’s symbolic last stand on an issue that is felt greatly around the world and is a major impediment to the peace process.

Trump has promised a drastically different approach, so far he had appointed two hardliners as Ambassador to the UN and as US Ambassador to the state of Israel, the latter David Friedman has in the past publicly supported Israeli settlement expansion and is opposed to a two state solution, while the former Nikki Haley while governor of South Carolina passed legislation against the BDS (Boycott, Divest, Sanctions) and also went public last year objecting to the Iran nuclear deal and supporting Netanyahu’s criticism of the measure.

Trump choice of appointing uncompromising hardliners go in sharp contrast with previous official US policy, the US Government has been in fact a major promoter of peace talks and took the role of mediator in negotiations between the Palestinian Authority and Israel, by selecting people who are against the notion of Palestinian statehood Trump is simply making it impossible for the US to have any meaningful role in the eventual rekindling of peace talks.

Furthermore his remarks about wanting to move the US Embassy from the current Tel Aviv location to Jerusalem was badly received both in Europe and the Arab world, while it was obviously welcome by the right wing Israeli Government which now feels emboldened by the full support it expects to receive from the new US President.

It is unlikely that Trump has any interest in playing the role Bill Clinton did during the Oslo talks, he likely does not care to be seen as a peacemaker and a builder of bridges, he did state that he will pursue an isolationist foreign policy, reducing foreign aid and military support to other countries, although we can safely assume that Israel’s share will be left unchanged.

Israel is likely to proceed at full speed with its settlements expansion, eager to “make facts on the ground” before an eventual restarting of negotiations, to have the upper hand in negotiating eventual land exchanges that will reflect the changing demographics in the Palestinian territories.

It has to be said that without external intervention from third parties both the Israelis and their Arab counterparts do not seem to be willing to sit around a table again and make tough decisions, as neither side wants to give concessions to the other.

It will be fascinating to see how the Trump’s Presidency will affect the international order, as it is likely to bring about a drastic change of tone from the often idealistic approach taken by his predecessors, who so often wanted to play the role of a force for good, displaying a proactive attitude, which it has to be said has on occasion backfired quite dramatically.

Surely Trump does have a hand on America’s pulse and has been capable of exploiting the weariness the average American citizen has of having to foot up the bill of maintaining the international order, seeing their tax money being transferred from the American workers and spent abroad with no tangible benefit for Americans. Playing the role of the world’s policeman does not just take a toll on treasure but also on blood, America has been involved in conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan for about fifteen years and the public definately seems eager to disengage and let the world sort itself out.

 

The Putin End Game

It was just a few years ago that Russia seemed politically isolated, its reputation tainted, its economy stagnant, however the backlash following the Crimea annexation and the ensuing sanctions from the international community seemed to have spurned Russia, like a cornered injured beast.

The past two years have seen Putin lead Russia to a new influential role, actively siding with President Bashar Assad of Syria to prevent the country from falling into the hands of the radical Islamists financed, armed and trained by the Gulf monarchies, with US and Turkish help.

Now it looks like Assad will remain in power, as thanks to the Russian backing the Syrian forces loyal to the President, alongside a contingent of Hezbullah soldiers and Iranian Revolutionary Guards, have made considerable gains on the ground, recapturing Aleppo and vast areas of the country along with it.

Now it looks like Putin has won yet another, perhaps even more important battle, his candidate has been sworn in into the White House this January, even before the official allegations of meddling and influence, it was clear that Trump was Putin’s choice, as Hillary Clinton would have continued the Obama attitude of infantile hostility to Russia and petty actions like expelling diplomats in his last week in office.

The Obama administration has had a major role in pushing the EU to implement sanctions following the war in Eastern Ukraine, even though the sanctions are hurting exporters in countries like Germany, France and Italy and are not a popular measure among the population. In fact the sanctions are not only futile but are damaging European producers, who are being denied one of their major export markets.

If Trump had been President at the time of the Crimea annexation it is likely that he would have closed a blind eye and refrained from taking punitive measures.

If the allegations  by the FBI are indeed true then we could argue that Putin managed a magnificent chess move, at no point in the last century had Russia held the power to influence US elections and help install a friendly candidate.

Furthermore with Brexit weakening the EU bloc and the elections in France in which two candidates Fallon and Marine le Pen are both Russophile and have publicly said they opposed sanctions against Russia, if one of the two gets to the Elysee then Putin would have won another victory closer to home, on the European chessboard.

Putin has been able to play the West with a patient and streetwise game, playing his cards right, if the next year sees not only Trump, but a friendly new President in France, Merkel losing her own election, Britain triggering Article 50 and leaving the EU, Putin would pretty much won all he could.

UKIP and the Leave propaganda machine were obviously the recipient of Russian support as are anti-EU parties around the continent, such France’s Front National, Italy’s Movimento Cinque Stelle, it is a clear Russian strategic goal to divide or break up the European Union, Britain leaving is a severe blow to the EU’s global standing, one of the most prosperous members deciding to leave the club will obviously raise doubts about the club’s actual benefits for its members.

If Trump’s ascension to the White House really was due to Russian influence then it is likely that Trump will be bound to Putin on a personal level, certainly moving away from Obama’s policy against Russia. If the US were to cease sending troops to Baltic states, providing training and weapons to the Ukrainian military, stop planning on installing missile batteries close to Russia’s borders that would have a huge impact on Russian ability to influence its neighbours.

A non-hostile US President, coupled with a weakened and divided EU, together with the potential electoral victory of political parties that are actively supported by the Kremlin in Western Europe could prove the final checkmate against those who oppose Russia.

Putin has been engineering these moves against his Western rivals for years and his patience and time bidding in the face of direct provocation, never replying tit for tat, but rather hitting back in deeper, more meaningful ways has proven victorious, achieving results that could help re-design the global arena for the next few decades, in a way it could be argued that Russia’s successful mastery of manipulation and influence had brought more tangible political gains than has ever been previously achieved by the country.

In the old days of the Soviet Union, the country  had widespread influence in the developing world but it certainly wasn’t able to pick and install its favorite candidates in the White House, the old leaders of the Soviet Union would have probably happily sold their souls at a crossroad if it meant being able to enjoy such influence in the US of all places.

 

A Different Outlook

Geopolitical news and opinion, with a different outlook on life and reality